Toronto FC postseason hopes rest with defense

Soccer Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a story that Toronto FC fans have grown accustomed to. A strong start to the season that looks to be leading to the eventual reward of making the MLS playoffs for the first time, only for the team to have a dismal finish and fail to reach the promised land.

The 2010 version of TFC still has time to give that story a different ending, but a few members of the club must improve significantly for that to come to fruition.

Goalkeeper Stefan Frei has been marvelous in net for TFC, but he is also the most overworked keeper in the MLS. Through weekend play, the side had allowed the most shots on net in the entire league.

The midfielders have at times failed to pull their weight defensively, and defenders Nick Garcia and Adrian Cann have occasionally been caught cheating to the tune of several goals, and points in the standings, surrendered.

This affliction was on full display July 31 in a loss to the Kansas City Wizards, where a misguided back header by Cann allowed KC's Teal Bunbury to break in on net alone and beat Frei for the only goal of the game.

At times, Cann's lack of pace has also been his undoing, with the more fleet- footed opposing forwards taking advantage of the former Canadian international player. Cann's current form kept him from being selected to the national team for one of their upcoming friendlies.

Garcia has been perhaps more frustrating to watch, simply because you do not know what to expect from him on a game-by-game basis.

In some fixtures, he shows off his ability to make sound judgements and displays wonderful crossing ability, while in others he makes poor decisions with the ball.

Considering the fact TFC has allowed 26 goals this season, compared to 22 scored, the offense must also do its part in order for the club to succeed and make up for its deficiencies on the back end.

Designated players Mista and Julian De Guzman must live up to their big-money price tags and produce more than they have. After his move from Spain, Mista has been especially disappointing, considering he was supposed to add another dimension to the TFC offense.

Though Dwayne De Rosario and Chad Barrett have done a decent job in leading the TFC attack, the presence of Maicon Santos allowed more flexibility and his full return from injury would make the club more complete.

If TFC hopes to maintain a playoff spot throughout the rest of the season, they must improve at both ends of the field and perform better on the road, which has been their Achilles' heel since entering the MLS in 2007.

With CONCACAF Champions League games on the horizon and the absence of several top-notch players leaving their team for international duty, TFC's roster depth will be put to the test in the coming weeks. The old adage that offense wins games but defense wins championships should be a philosophy that TFC adheres to during the stretch run.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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