Older Horses on Display at Gulfstream Park

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/02/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With zero Kentucky Derby preps to analyze until later in the week, it's time to delve into Wednesday's card at Gulfstream Park, one that features a pair of four-year-olds (in different races) that were prominent on last year's Derby trail.

Hold Me Back, the 12th place finisher in last year's Run for the Roses, makes his 2010 debut in an optional claiming allowance event at one-mile - the third race on the card.

After the Kentucky Derby, Hold Me Back ran fifth on the turf in the Virginia Derby then was a game second in the Travers to Summer Bird. His three-year-old season ended with an unthreatening sixth in the Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park as the 4-5 favorite.

Hold Me Back was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite on Wednesday, but this race might not be his for the taking since it will take place at one-mile - the shortest race of his career. In addition, he has never won on traditional dirt as all three of his victories have come over synthetics.

His connections will also not be disheartened if he fails to cross the wire first as they are just looking to get a race under his belt prior to moving forward in stakes events down the road.

To that end, the main objective as a handicapper is to find a horse that could upset the expected heavy favorite.

THE REST OF THE FIELD

Colonial Causeway is one of two horses entered for the claiming price of $80,000. He's dropping from a $100,000 optional claiming race after a pair of fifth-place finishes. At 15-1 on the morning line, he's the longest shot on the board and deservedly so. Pass

Stones River hasn't raced since March 20, 2009 - a last place effort in a $62,500 optional claimer. His prior six races were all in stakes events with one victory and five off-the-board finishes. He does come in with a bullet workout (fastest work of the day at the distance), but seems up against it in this one.

Cassoulet also hasn't raced in a while, but his 3 1/2-month vacation doesn't come anywhere close to Stones River's long departure. Cassoulet was last seen on November 14 at Churchill Downs where he finished sixth, beaten 8 1/2- lengths in a $100,000 optional claimer at seven furlongs. Prior to that, he was seventh in the Icecapade Stakes at Monmouth Park. The other horse entered for a claiming tag (besides Colonial Causeway) appears to be a solid candidate to finish last.

Wicked B. Havior, like Stones River, comes into this race off a long layoff as his last trip over a track was way back in April of 2009 - a fourth-place finish in the Westchester Handicap. He did win his prior race at Keeneland - a second level allowance event at seven furlongs.

The seven-year-old with only 12 lifetime starts had a very long rest away from the races, from the end of 2006 to early 2009, but came out running in his first start back with a 46 3/5 middle half-mile after a slow beginning. Nevertheless, he was unable to hit the board that day, finishing fourth. Despite the layoff, he's definitely one to keep an eye on.

Our Edge is one of two horses with a race under his belt in 2010, but it was a troubled trip for the two-time stakes winner. After stumbling out of the gate, jockey Elvis Trujillo had to steady the four-year-old when stablemate Brave Victory altered his path down the backstretch. By that time, there was little the rider could do so he coasted his mount home with a last place finish.

Our Edge, the lone speed in the race, should move forward in his second off the layoff, especially with the addition of blinkers. He's definitely the horse to beat.

Play Our Edge to win, and on top of Wicked B. Havior and Hold me Back in exactas.

RACE 8

The third race isn't the only one involving a former Kentucky Derby prospect as Imperial Council headlines race eight on the card - a seven-furlong $62,500 optional claiming allowance event.

The Shug McGaughey-trained colt was highly regarded entering his three-year- old campaign, but after a victory in an entry level allowance last February, he failed to find the winner's circle in four consecutive starts. Still, the son of Empire Maker was good enough to run second in two graded stakes - the Gotham and the Peter Pan.

Imperial Council returned to the track last month for the first time since last May, finishing third, beaten two-lengths by Warrior's Reward. He had a perfect trip along the rail sitting about four lengths behind the leaders, but came up short despite very fast early fractions of 44 4/5 and 1:09 2/5. It was a solid effort for his first race in over eight months. Nonetheless, he's the type of horse that teases you with his talent but lacks the heart of a winner.

The second choice on the morning-line is one of the two horses that defeated Imperial Council last time out.

Royal Vindication ran second, beaten less than a length behind Warrior's Reward that day, his first race since last August. This stakes-placed colt has hit the board in eight of nine tries and always gives 100%.

Checklist, the third choice at 5-1, has raced only six times in his career with the last coming in June of 2009 - a third place finish in the Rumson Stakes at Monmouth.

This is a tough spot for the lightly-raced colt since he's only been further than 6 1/2-furlongs once in his career. In addition, it's doubtful he'll be able to control the pace (something he might need to get the victory) since there's a lot of other speedballs in the race that will keep him company on the front end.

Nick Zito runs an entry of Just a Coincidence and Brave Victory, but both colts are coming off poor efforts in their respective 2010 debuts. The former adds blinkers after tiring badly at one-mile at Gulfstream Park on January 24, while the latter defeated only Our Edge in that seven-horse field back on January 31.

Just a Coincidence is the better of the two and could rebound in his second race back. Don't forget, this is the same horse that held the lead down the stretch in last year's Wood Memorial.

Two other horses return from their match with Just a Coincidence and both must be taken seriously. Caixa Electronica rallied for second behind Birdrun while Fine Flyer wound up third.

Of the two, the horse to watch is Fine Flyer, who ran a deceptively solid race that day despite the third-place finish. The six-year-old made a winning move around the turn, running his third quarter in a quick 23 3/5 seconds. Unfortunately, he came up short through the stretch in his second start since last May. Look for continued improvement as he drops back in distance from one mile to seven-furlongs.

One other horse to keep an eye on is Mannington. The five-year-old gelding might be a notch below the rest of the field in terms of class, but he's as consistent as they come with two wins and six seconds in his last 12 starts. He's also won 33 percent of his races at Gulfstream Park.

Play Fine Flyer to win and place, and in a three-horse exacta box with Royal Vindication and Just a Coincidence.

FIRST-TIME STARTER COULD BE SOMETHING SPECIAL

The sixth race, a maiden special weight event at six furlongs, features a field of nine, but the one everyone is talking about is the six-horse, Backstabber.

Gary and Mary West, who purchased the son of Elusive Quality for $400,000 in September of 2007, had to wait a long time before the colt was able to hit the racetrack. Nevertheless, that day finally comes on Wednesday.

Trained by Wayne Catalano, Backstabber is Miss Doolittle's fifth foal to date. The first, Broadway Gold, won the Astoria Stakes for two-year-old fillies in 2004. Also, his second dam, Eliza, won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies race in 1992.

Backstabber has eight published workouts with one bullet on January 23 - a four-furlong 46 4/5 gate work at Gulfstream Park. He also breezed six-furlongs in 1:14 3/5 on February 26 out of the gate so he shouldn't have any problems at the start in his career debut.

The 3-1 second choice on the morning line also doesn't have much to beat in this field as six of the other eight horses have yet to show any effectiveness. One other horse, Targhee Pass, is doubtful to finish first since his trainer, Hall of Famer Allen Jerkens does not fair well with first- time starters

The only colt that has a shot to win, besides Backstabber, is the eight-horse Pax. Trained by Billy Turner of Seattle Slew fame, Pax hasn't won in seven tries, but the cutback in distance from seven-furlongs to six should help the son of Smarty Jones.

Play Backstabber to win and on top of Pax in the exacta.

Kisscasnio Horseracing Betting News

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com

For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.